Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang wave to media prior to a meeting at Hydrabad house in New Delhi on Monday. PTI Photo
“There are more shared interests than difference between China and India and we need to confront these issues with a broad mind and handle them in a mature way,” said, Li Keqiang, the Chinese Premier, at a joint press conference with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in New Delhi. In light of the Chinese incursion in Ladakh’s Aksai Chin region last month, the gesture of choosing India as his first official visit, highlighting the importance of China’s southern neighbour and the words offered by Premier Li, hint at a possible upswing in Indo – China relations.
Both leaders spoke of the border issue, need for greater information sharing on trans-border rivers, peace as the key to growth and stability as well as furthering economic ties by looking at investment opportunities in each other’s countries. However, despite the gestures and the words, the path ahead is complex and not without hurdles – the first being the border issue.
Border Talks
While credit must be given to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh for raising the border issue and stating that “the basis for continued growth and expansion of our ties is peace and tranquility on our borders.” Hinting that the border dispute must be resolved to insure continued growth in the bilateral relationship. But as Dr. S Jaishankar, the Indian Ambassador to China, stated while addressing a media gathering, “the border issue is very complex”.
India inherited her borders as a part of a colonial legacy but unfortunately, neither did the British, nor subsequently an independent Indian, establish these borders with China and this is the root cause of the problem where both countries claim the same territories through historical rights. Even the Line of Actual Control in Aksai Chin was not agreed upon after the 1962 war. It has been operating on the basis of convention; hence there exist differing perceptions which gave rise to the incursions last month.
While both leaders accepted that the Special Representatives of both countries who have met 15 times since 1988 to settle the border, should meet a 16th time and establish the framework within which a solution can be found, another problem exists for India – the Indian constitution requires a two-thirds majority in parliament for any change or exchange of Indian territory. So hypothetically, if China offered a signed settlement on the border issue tomorrow, there is a very slim chance that it will pass through parliament.
Water Wars
One of the issues flagged by the Indian government over the last two days of Li Keqiang’s stay in the capital was the water of the Brahmaputra. There are growing concerns that the Chinese projects close to the source of the Brahmaputra will result in diversion of the river or drastically reduce the quantity of water entering India, which would be devastating for the Northeast region of India. “The issue was brought up yesterday and the Chinese response was sympathetic” said Dr. S Jaishankar, “they assured us that they would not do anything that would damage our interests.” An example if this is the agreement that was signed today between the two countries, pushing for greater information sharing on the Brahmaputra waters during flood season.
However, known as the Third Pole, the Tibetan plateau is the largest glacier after the North and South Poles. It is the source of not only the Indus and Brahmaputra but eight other major rivers, four of which flow into India. Unfortunately, the rapid development of Tibet is drastically impacting India’s water security. Experts feel that climate change, compounded by the building of highways, railways and other infrastructural development by China, is hastening the melting of the permafrost in Tibet which will adversely affect India’s water security in the long run. This is something that India needs to take up, but it seems unlikely that China, for whom the rapid development of Tibet is part of their internal security apparatus, will slow down infrastructural projects in the region.
The Tibet Issue
While Tibetan protestors lines the streets of Delhi, surprisingly neither leader mentioned the Tibet issue in their address to the media. However, many experts feel that Tibet remains central to Indo – Chinese relations. While India has given its assurance to the Chinese delegation of the Tibet issue, former foreign secretary Kanwal Sibal feels that China is insecure about Tibet. “China feels that India has a card there and if it settles the border, it would have to inevitably settle with the Dalai Lama. The two cannot be separated in their minds.” Beijing, it is believed, wants to wait out until the Dalai Lama, 77, passes away, at which point it would install a Dalai Lama of its choosing, divvying up the Tibetans. Under China’s pressure, Nepal has already clamped down on Tibetan exiles within its borders forcing them to roll back protests. Analysts say Beijing wants to keep its claims on Tawang alive so that it can twist India’s arms to crack down on Tibetan protests here.
Li Keqiang may talk of improved ties and both countries growing together, but the fact remains that the presence of the Dalai Lama and the Tibetan government in exile makes the Chinese uncomfortable and will remain a bone of contention in normalising relations.
While there may be hurdles, it seems that both countries have realised that peace and cooperation is necessary for the stability of the region and the growth of Asia. The visit has definite positives, both countries are talking about the border issue quite openly, they are working closely with Russia to chalk out a plan for post 2014 Afghanistan, the emphasis will now be on pushing bilateral trade and investment in infrastructural projects but the Indian government, should not and in all probability will not, be wide eyed about Li Keqiang visit.