Srikanth Kondapalli, Chairman, Centre For East Asian Studies, JNU, Photo: Tarun Sehrawat
Many cross-border transgressions take place every year. Why is this one cause for concern?
The LAC has not been clearly demarcated. It is not like the border between Delhi and Haryana, for instance, where there is a clear demarcation, with a board or a sign saying, “Welcome to Haryana” or a milestone. There are no such signs on the Indo- China border. The LAC is fuzzy and both sides have different views on it. So if a border patrol is moving in an area claimed by the other side, it is obviously considered a violation.
The fact is that there are transgressions almost every day, around 250 a year. The number has gone up post India’s nuclear tests, but in this case, the intrusion is significant as they have set up a tent. Previously, they would just plant their flag or leave behind cigarette butts or packets of noodles. Those are the usual tell-tale marks. This time, it’s the tents that lead us to believe that they wanted to settle down.
India has been developing its infrastructure in the border areas and is planning to strengthen its military presence. Could this be a warning of sorts?
We have announced infrastructure projects in the area and the strategic roads we plan to build are part of that project, but the progress is very slow. The Border Roads Organisation had made an announcement some time ago that almost half of the work is over. But if you check on the ground, all that has been done is that the hill side has been dug up. They have not built the roads yet. I have recently been to the DBG sector and the roads are still dirt roads, it is not a highway. On the Chinese side, however, they have beautifully tarred roads.
I think part of this is linked to the infrastructural development that the Chinese have been carrying out in the Northern Areas and other parts of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (POK). The recent incursions, however, have happened about 200-300 km away from those areas. It’s already well-known that Chinese companies have invested heavily in the area. And though the Chinese government denies it, there are reports suggesting that there are 11,000 Chinese troops protecting these installations through patrolling. This is surely a factor fuelling the current crisis.
A month ago, the Chinese government proposed a draft agreement with India on the rules of engagement that called for demilitarisation of the LAC, no night patrols and removing structures from the border areas. We have not accepted it yet. Could this be pressure tactics before the Chinese premier’s visit?
They are demanding that, but India will not go by what they demand and there is no obligation to accept it. We cannot remove troops from the area. The Chinese have fantastic infrastructure, they can centrally decide the placement of their troops on the ground and move them when they wish, but we cannot. We have to keep our troops where they are located on the ground. To accede to the Chinese demand will be like removing our troops from the Siachen glacier just because Pakistan has a problem with their presence there.
Do you view this as an attempt by Pakistan and China to squeeze India in the region?
As of now, we cannot say that. These are infrastructural projects at the moment, but they can be put to dual use, both civil and military. They are widening the Karakoram Highway to 30 metres, which means that it can also transport troops. As of now they are not squeezing India and India has its strengths, but who knows what they will do in the future.
Brinkmanship? Uncertainty on the border between two nuclear powers like India and China may lead to bigger problems that both would like to avoid, Photo: AFP
As of now, we don’t control the Aksai Chin region. If we accept the status quo, could there be a settlement along the entire border?
They proposed this in 1957, and again in 1980, but India did not accept it then. But now we are suggesting something similar. My reading is that the Chinese will not accept the proposal now, because unlike in ’57 and ’80, today China is a much stronger country. They physically control the Aksai Chin region and I don’t think we will get anything from them there.
Moreover, their current position is that they want to control Tawang (in Arunachal Pradesh) in the eastern sector. Obviously, there is no way India can agree to giving away Tawang. So there is a stalemate: you cannot have a solution on Aksai Chin and no solution on the eastern sector. You have to have both.
By not fixing the border, China has created an interesting situation where incidents like these are seen not as acts of war but acts of ‘confusion’. And it allows them to embarrass and armtwist India by applying minimum force. Does China want this situation to continue?
If there is uncertainty on the border between two rising countries, then it will lead to bigger problems. I don’t think it is good for either country. At the same time, neither can really afford to cross the line, because both are nuclear states.
Does the issue of Tibet influence how China looks at the border dispute?
This stalemate will continue as Tibet is inherently linked to the Indo-China border dispute. Developments in Tibet and the Tibetan leadership are also connected to the border issue. My reading is that the border dispute will not be resolved unless the Tibet issue is resolved in favour of China. So I think we are in for a long haul, because we don’t see any resolution between the Dalai Lama and the Chinese government.
There is talk that China is trying to test how India would react. What is your view?
They are testing us and we are testing them back. When you have uncertainty, people play games. In this case, the fact that we asked for two flag meetings and the Chinese had to accept, indicated that we too put them to a test. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi made a comment on this, and their foreign ministry spokesperson also said, “We should go back to status quo.” This means they accepted that it was China that changed the status quo, so to go back to it, they will have to withdraw and go back 10 km. So it is true that China tested India and India, in turn, also succeeded in testing it.
Could this lead to war?
I don’t think this issue will lead to a war. This is just posturing. Both sides will protect their sovereignty and territorial integrity, but they will not go to war on small issues. It is a big issue in terms of changing the status quo, but a small issue in terms of war.